Climate Intelligence & Risk Resilience

Risk is invisible.
Until it's too late.

From glaciers to global markets — pricing climate risk before it's too late. An interactive system for understanding the fragility of mountain economies.

by André Ramolivaz · USC Marshall School of Business
ramoliva@usc.edu · +1 (310) 866-0308
Created for the LewerMark “Make Your Mark” Scholarship Contest · Spring 2026
Explore the System
Scroll
I chose to build an interactive system instead of a video because climate risk is not a story to watch — it is a system to understand.
Design Philosophy

What happens when
the mountain melts?

Mountain communities in the Alps and Apennines face a unique problem: their economy, safety, and identity are tied to a landscape that is rapidly changing. Glaciers are shrinking. Landslides are increasing. Young people are leaving. The Rutor glacier in Valle d'Aosta — one of the largest in the Italian Alps — has lost 150 million cubic meters of water equivalent since 2005. Its front has retreated 700 meters in 25 years. This simulator lets you explore how different factors interact to shape the future of these communities.

The same mountain. Two different futures.

Drag to rotate. These 3D models show how the Rutor glacier is projected to change based on current warming trends. The glacier's area shrank from 8.44 km² in 2005 to 7.58 km² in 2019 — and the retreat is accelerating.

~ 2005
8.44 km² · Full ice mass
~ 2050 projected
Estimated <4 km² · 150M m³ lost
🏔️
-18m
Ice Thickness Lost
Meters of water equivalent lost on Rutor glacier between 2005–2023. That's an 18-story building of solid ice, gone.
💧
150M m³
Water Reserve Lost
The Rutor has lost 150 million cubic meters of water — equivalent to the annual consumption of a city of 800,000 people.
⛷️
-34 days
Shorter Ski Season
Alpine ski resorts below 1,500m have lost over a month of reliable snow cover since the 1970s. Tourism models are breaking.
🏚️
€2.1B
Annual Damage Cost
Estimated yearly cost of hydrogeological disasters in Italy. Mountain regions bear a disproportionate share of this burden.
📉
-27%
Snow Deficit
Valle d'Aosta's regional snow reserve deficit in 2024 vs. the 20-year average. The lower valley lost up to 60% of its snowpack.
⏱️
3x faster
Melt Acceleration
In 2022, the Rutor lost 3,867mm of ice — nearly 4x the 2024 rate. The worst year ever recorded. Melt seasons now last 3 months instead of 1.

Interactive Risk Simulator

Now explore what happens when you change the variables. Move the sliders to see how temperature, tourism, investment, and education reshape the risk profile of a mountain community.

🌡️ Temperature Increase+1.5°C
How much warmer than pre-industrial levels. Above +2°C, glacier loss accelerates dramatically.
⛷️ Tourism Dependency40%
How much the local economy depends on tourism. High dependency = high vulnerability when seasons shift.
🏗️ Public Investment€5.0M
Annual investment in infrastructure and prevention. More investment = better prepared.
🎓 Local Education LevelMedium
Access to higher education and technical training. More skilled communities adapt faster.
👴 Population AgeMedian 46
Median age of the community. Older populations have fewer workers, less adaptability, and higher care needs during emergencies.
🌐 Economic DiversificationLow
How many different industries support the local economy. A town that only has tourism is fragile. One with tech, agriculture, energy, and crafts is resilient.
📡 Digital & Monitoring InfrastructureBasic
Quality of sensors, broadband, weather stations, and early-warning systems. Better tech means faster response to landslides, floods, and emergencies.
🌿 Forest & Land ManagementModerate
How well forests, slopes, and riverbanks are maintained. Good land management prevents erosion, stabilizes soil, and reduces flood damage naturally.
Economic Distress Probability
23%
There is roughly a 1 in 4 chance the local economy enters serious financial difficulty within the next 10 years.
⚠ Moderate risk
Flood & Landslide Risk
0.45
The combined probability of dangerous flooding or landslides. Above 0.6, events become likely rather than rare.
⚠ Elevated
Youth Migration Rate
-2.1
For every 1,000 residents, about 2 more people leave than arrive each year. The community is slowly shrinking.
● Stable decline
Glacier Retreat Rate
26 m/yr
The glacier front is retreating about 26 meters per year. At this pace, lower-altitude ice tongues will disappear within two decades.
⚠ Accelerating
Water Stress Index
0.38
The ratio between water demand and available supply from glacial melt + rainfall. Above 0.5, communities may face summer shortages.
⚠ Moderate stress
Ski Season Viability
72%
Percentage of winters with enough natural snow to sustain a full ski season. Below 50%, resorts become economically unviable without heavy artificial snow investment.
● Viable
Infrastructure Resilience Score
6.2
A composite score (0–10) measuring how well roads, bridges, drainage, and early-warning systems can handle extreme events. Below 4 means critical infrastructure gaps.
● Adequate
Probability Distribution
This curve shows 5,000 simulated futures. The peak is the most likely outcome. A wider curve means more uncertainty — the future is harder to predict.

The Alpine Intelligence
Scholarship

Why I created this

I grew up in Aosta, in the shadow of the Mont Blanc massif. Every summer I watched the Rutor glacier shrink a little more. Every winter, the ski season started a little later. Every year, a few more friends left for Milan or Turin and didn't come back.

The data you explored in the Risk Engine above is not abstract to me. The 150 million cubic meters of lost water — that's the river that powered my town's economy. The -27% snow deficit — that's the season that didn't come. The youth migration rate — those are my classmates.

At Ca' Foscari in Venice, I studied economics in a city that is itself sinking. At the ECB in Frankfurt, I learned how systemic risk propagates through financial networks. At PwC in Milan, I saw how businesses quantify uncertainty. Now at USC, I'm learning to build the AI and data systems that can turn these problems into solutions.

The Alpine Intelligence Scholarship is the bridge I wish existed when I was 18 — a way for students from fragile mountain communities to gain world-class technical training and bring it home, before it's too late.

🎓
Master & PhD Programs
€25,000 – €40,000 / year
Full tuition + living stipend for graduate programs in AI, Climate Analytics, Risk Engineering, Computational Geoscience, or Environmental Economics at partner universities in Europe and the US.
🏔️
Field Research Grants
€8,000 – €15,000
Funding for on-the-ground research in Alpine and Apennine communities — glacier monitoring campaigns, soil stability analysis, hydrological sensor deployment, and economic resilience mapping with local municipalities.
🔬
Community Data Labs
€50,000 seed grants
Seed funding to build open-source geospatial AI labs in partnership with regional agencies like ARPA Valle d'Aosta — creating real-time climate risk dashboards that municipal governments can actually use.
🤝
Return & Build Program
12-month placement
After completing their studies, fellows return to their home region for a 12-month paid placement with a local institution — applying what they learned to real problems. The knowledge doesn't leave. It comes back.

Each area directly connects to the variables in the Risk Engine above. The Scholarship trains students to build the systems that protect mountain communities.

01
Machine Learning & Early Warning
Training neural networks on satellite imagery and sensor data to predict landslides, avalanches, and flash floods 24–72 hours before they happen. Every hour of advance warning saves lives.
02
Financial Risk Modeling
Applying stochastic processes, Monte Carlo simulation, and credit risk frameworks — the same tools used by the ECB and investment banks — to price the economic impact of climate change on small mountain economies.
03
Geospatial AI & Remote Sensing
Using drone photogrammetry, LiDAR, and satellite data to create 3D models of glacier retreat and terrain instability — exactly like the Rutor models shown above, but at operational resolution for real decision-making.
04
Sustainable Tourism & Economic Diversification
Building data-driven strategies to transition mountain economies from snow-dependent tourism to year-round models: summer eco-tourism, remote work hubs, renewable energy, and precision agriculture.
Who Can Apply
Italian citizens from mountain or fragile regions: Valle d'Aosta, Trentino-Alto Adige, Piemonte montano, Appennini (Abruzzo, Molise, Basilicata), inland Sardinia, Calabria, Friuli montano
Undergraduate degree (or final year) in STEM, Economics, Environmental Sciences, Data Science, Geography, or Urban Planning
Demonstrated connection to their home community — volunteer work, local projects, family ties, or a clear vision for how they'll apply their skills back home
Commitment to the 12-month Return & Build placement after graduation
Selection Criteria
Impact potential (40%) — How clearly can the applicant articulate the problem in their community and their plan to address it?
Technical readiness (25%) — Does the applicant have the foundation to succeed in a rigorous quantitative program?
Rootedness (20%) — How deep is the connection to their mountain community? Do they understand it from the inside?
Originality (15%) — Is the proposed project genuinely new, or does it bring a fresh perspective to an existing problem?
“The mountains don't need people who left and forgot. They need people who left, learned, and came back with tools.”
— The founding principle of the Alpine Intelligence Scholarship

From the Field

This is not biography. It is blueprint. Education scales impact when it returns home.

Origin
Aosta
Valle d'Aosta
Fragility
Growing up under glaciers that shrink every year
Study
Venezia
Ca' Foscari
Culture
Where beauty and vulnerability coexist
Research
Frankfurt
ECB
Systems
Understanding how financial risk cascades
Industry
Milano
PwC
Innovation
Applying models to real-world decisions
Global
Los Angeles
USC
Scale
Thinking global, building for home

“Global education is not escape.
It is amplification.”